I haven’t been officially soothsaying for a decade or three so I thought I would limber up my skills by indulging in some summer musings about the relatively near future. That’s always a little dangerous because reality usually bounces quite a bit around the epidemic curve trend lines. Given that this is an election year in many parts of the globe, the bounce might be more than I expect.

So hold on and try your own versions of these three that assume nothing changes quickly. Keep in mind that climate change is the elephant in the corner.

Electric Vehicles (EVs)

Although there is said to be a slump in EV deliveries today, I expect it to resume accelerating soon. Some of the reasons behind the slump are: prices are too high for the average buyer, features are too unexciting, component deliveries are still clogged, there is too little variety when compared with IC (internal combustion) cars, or all of the above. America’s Tesla is currently the world leader in EV sales and production, while China’s BYD is second and moving up, while other countries are also trying to get into the market.

From the technology point of view Tesla appears to be far ahead of the rest. Because of its innovativeness, Tesla currently can run rings around the others. However, the CEO’s social skills and political preferences tend to act as a drag on Tesla’s sales. [Full disclosure: I am a Tesla owner and stockholder].

The key to success in EVs of whatever sort is its power source: batteries. If an EV could have a battery pack that could: power its vehicle for 400 miles (667 kilometers) at 70 mph (117 kph), with acceleration at 0 – 60 mph in 3 seconds or less, while weighing no more that 15 gallons (57 liters) of gas without catching on fire or using expensive chemicals, it would instantly capture most of the EV market. Sadly, no such thing is yet apparent or in the near distance on the market.

But battery technology is steadily improving so the prices of EVs will lower as well, together with the other EV technologies such as high levels of autonomy. All this may well merge into Elon Musk’s dream of automated cabs or my 1970s dream of personal rapid transit by 2030.

Since automobile travel constitutes a significant portion of fossil fuel use, the faster that EV sales increases, the better off we all are. Of course assuming that the power plants providing the electricity for charging those batteries are also zero emissions.

The population bump

While we’re musing about the future of EVs it’s worth thinking about a related topic: the population bump. That is, the fact that the world’s total of Homo sapiens individuals will soon, possibly within 5 years, start to shrink. So many of our concerns of today will diminish and even become worries in the reverse direction.

Take housing, for example. Today, one of the primary concerns of young voters (under 30) in the U.S. is housing, according to a recent Harvard survey, as reported in the New York Times. As global population decreases, the supply of vacant housing will increase proportionally. I know, I know, that’s a grim statistic (repurposing existing housing, such as office space in central business districts, might be much quicker) , but it is a component of the not-so-distant future. The basic source of the population decrease is that couples are having babies at less than the 2.1 rate of replacement. And that trend is spreading.

Global warming acts to accelerate that decrease through its effects on weather. Heat kills. More areas around the world today are experiencing extended periods of temperatures above 120F (50C) degrees. Such temperatures can kill not just humans, but many other animals that we depend on. That, in turn, causes increased migration of animals, plants and people to cooler climes, such as from Central America to the United States.

Global blazing while drowning

As an example of that effect, recently the New York Times ran a story about monkeys dropping from trees, dead, in southern Mexico. The cause? Dehydration resulting from an extensive period of 100F degree heat and spreading to other areas. Just another side effect of global warming. Forest fires are already blazing in Canada before the semiofficial fire season has begun. Expect more, soon, in the rest of the world, including in primary areas of CO₂ absorption such as the Amazon rainforest.

Meanwhile, growing areas, such as India and the American east coast, are being affected by flooding, both from rising ocean levels and land subsidence. The rate is increasing. Seaside homes are being destroyed while young people already can’t find enough affordable space.

Likely consequences

Remember, if the burning of fossil fuels stopped completely, world-wide tomorrow at noon, global warming might still slowly increase until it finally starts reducing in hundreds to thousands of years from now. As world population decreases, so does the interference with the environment by humans. But we can’t wait that long.

One brighter possibility: in the case of EVs, adoption will accelerate despite the fact that IC cars are still being produced and are likely to still be on the road for fifteen or more years after the last one is produced. The point where all personal vehicles are electric is still probably near the end of this century — unless the electric grid hasn’t yet kept up with demand, in which case it will be later. At least this is an action mostly dependent on the market.

The battle ahead is between those creating demand for the burning of fossil fuels (the populations of the world) and the producers thereof. So far, the producers are way ahead. Resistance is building, in spite of governmental foot dragging through the COP series, but it is slow, agonizingly so. I do not expect substantial reduction in fossil fuel production for twenty years at the current pace. Ways of sucking CO₂ out of the air, such as reforestation, also take at least decades, once proven, to get substantial results; technological means of doing that have yet to be produced at scale. Meanwhile, it’s getting ever hotter.

Have a nice day.