COP28, the 28th Conference Of the Parties has begun this week with representatives from 200 countries. The main theme of the conference is fast tracking the transition to zero net emissions of greenhouse gases and, specifically, to get half the way to zero by 2030. Further, the goal is to limit global warming to 1.5C (2.7F) above pre-industrial levels. What are the chances of success?

First, note that the world exceeded 1.5C for a day or more just recently. Global average temperature continues to increase monthly. Most of the increase is due to China, the United States, the European Union and India. Most of the ill effects of that increase fall on other countries, particularly those that have low emissions. So what should happen during COP28?

Equity

The people who may suffer the most should have the most help; it’s only fair, right? Yet they are also the least prepared to deal with the necessary changes, if only since they are the least responsible for the emissions that cause the problem. The rich countries have agreed in previous COPs to provide at least $100 billion in funding annually to that end. Yet they, including the U.S., have yet to deliver on that promise. Will matters change during COP28?

Conflicts of interest

The Chairman of COP28, Sultan al Jabr, is also chief executive of Abu Dhabi National Oil and chairman of the United Arab Emirates’ renewable energy arm. Although the company has started investing heavily in “green” energy efforts, its main focus is on gradually, not suddenly, getting out of the fossil fuel business. So I suspect that their emphasis will be on appearing to be reducing emissions as slowly as possible without affecting their profits. COP28 also appears to have the highest proportional attendance of representatives from fossil fuel companies of any COP to date.

Or maybe I’m just being too cynical.

Actual goals

The Nature Conservancy has three main goals for COP28. These are illustrative of those of the whole conference.

Phase out fossil fuels

It’s way past time to accelerate the phase-out of fossil fuels if we are to get to zero net emissions by 2050.

Build climate-resilient societies

We need to alter our approached to consumption and focus on getting back to nature for securing our “homes, livelihoods and their futures”, according to the Conservancy.

Invest in climate solutions

We need to make firm commitments, as well as actual investments in “nature-positive projects, policies and practices.”

The prospects

As the saying goes, Hope springs eternal. Let’s hope that this COP actually delivers on its promises.