Most of my writing on climate change has shown some level of despondence. So far. But now I’m beginning to see a gleam on the horizon. Despite what has happened this summer. The ungainly ships of state are beginning to turn around. Here are some examples.
The United Kingdom
The UK’s Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak has been walking back some of his government’s promises on climate. For example, he has been pushing back several green targets from 2030 to 2035, including a ban on the sale of new petrol and diesel cars; relaxing the phaseout of new gas boilers; and cessation of drilling for oil in the North Sea. His reason is that he doesn’t want to unduly burden citizens with the costs associated with these changes.
This has resulted in a substantial hue and cry among UK businesses and populace. The general complaint of businesses is that they have already spent significant sums getting ready for producing electric vehicles to replace those fossil-fueled ones; making heat pumps much more efficient and otherwise gearing down demand for oil. Sunak’s proposals have yet to be sustained by parliament.
According to the Financial Times, Al Gore is outraged by Sunak’s turnabout since transport is a major producer of greenhouse gas emissions, buildings are the second largest source of emissions and oil drilling should be reduced, not increased. Further, the UK has the worst rate of heart pump installation (and leakiest buildings?) in Europe.
Expect a re-reversal of Sunak’s policies.
India
The most populous nation in the world, India is currently reliant on coal-fired power plants for its electricity. Yet Prime Minster Narendra Modi, unlike Mr. Sunak, has a goal of 500 gigawatts of green power production by 2030. India now has many investment opportunities for green power even as coal still dominates daily production. Even in coal-dominant states such as Odisha, solar arrays are supplying power to industrial facilities. There is still a long way to go but the impetus is for a positive and fairly rapid transition to green.
China
China is a major example of a coal-dominant nation that is also the primary producer of solar arrays. China’s energy history is mostly of coal production. I toured down the Yangtze River in 2005 and remarked on the number of coal barges passing by, mostly heading to power plants. Thus, China is the primary producer of Carbon Dioxide today, although the US is the largest cumulative producer.
The big uncertainty is how many years it will take to replace all that coal. That depends on China’s continuing production of solar arrays and wind farms as well as effective storage technologies to cover the inevitable sunless and windless times. China is also the world’s biggest producer of Electric Vehicles (even though many of them are Teslas).
The trend is definite; the date the world reaches zero emissions is still hazy but at least it is in sight. There is a hopeful gleam on the horizon.