JALA Thoughts

Here’s the last paragraph in Chapter 9 of my book Exploring the World of the Personal Computer, published in 1982.

A totalitarian government wishing to ensure that its citizens continue to toe the line and obey all government policies had better also ensure that encryption technologies are not made available to individual citizens and that existing computers not be allowed to communicate with each other.
The danger of that occurring in the United States is extremely remote, but should never be considered to be impossible. Communicating personal computers can provide another safeguard for ensuring that the popular
wishes are reflected in the actions of the government, and all that that implies. One view of political systems is that of an inverted U. Totalitarianism is the bottom of one leg of the U, anarchy at the other. Here we sit somewhere around the top in a precarious and unstable equilibrium. Information technologies keep adding grease to our roller skates.

Now here’s a quote from the 26 June 2009 edition of the Washington Times.

Iranians seeking to share videos and other eyewitness accounts of the demonstrations that have roiled their country since disputed elections two weeks ago are using an Internet encryption program originally developed by and for the U.S. Navy.

Continue reading Telework and totalitarianism

Over the past several weeks one of the favorite topics in the press has been the latest fad in pandemics: swine flu. This has been brought about by a series of ominous pronouncements by the World Health Organization (WHO). WHO indeed? More recently WHO has begun to rethink its hazard announcement policies for fear of the dreaded Wolf syndrome.

Surely you remember the old fable about the boy WHO cried Wolf! After the first Wolf! shout the people in the boy’s village rushed about in preparation for defense against the vicious Wolf. When the Wolf! failed to appear, the boy’s wolf-forecasting credibility dropped a few notches. After the second outcome-free Wolf! alert reliance on the boy’s ability dropped another few notches. And so on to the point where no one paid any attention one day to another Wolf! cry.

Continue reading Apathy and the wolf

There’s a growing mound of evidence that my previous comments about the need for concern over energy use and global warming have been too optimistic. The 30 April 2009 issue of Nature has several articles, under the heading: The Coming Climate Crunch, that make the scientific case for a higher level of teeth gnashing. Its editorial Time to Act begins with the statement:

“Without a solid commitment from the world’s leaders, innovative ways to combat climate change are likely to come to nothing. It is not too late yet — but we may be very close.”

The rest of the climate-oriented reports in that issue contain a mixture of bad and maybe not so bad news. At the current rates, as determined by a variety of analyses, the earth is warming even faster than the upper-limit scenarios of a few months ago. As we collectively increase our mining of carbon for later release into the atmosphere as CO₂ we will accelerate our race toward the day when we reach the point where catastrophic climate changes are upon us.

To avoid that fate there are some possible alternatives. These include development of thousands, even millions of scrubbers to extract CO₂ from the atmosphere and geoengineering schemes to increase the earth’s albedo or block incoming solar rays. The problem is that none of these options are beyond the lab test phase. Even if the lab tests are successful, getting from there to thousands of operating installations is likely a matter of decades.

Clearly, business as usual is not an option if we want to avoid roasting ourselves, our kids, and any generations that survive after them. So, with that as background, guess what our global leaders are doing about it.

On average they’re saying: “Wait until we’re sure.”

Wait until when, exactly? 2050? 2100? When will they decide to act? Either of those dates is way too late if the scientific evidence so far is even close to correct. Continue reading The waiting game

It’s that time of the year again. Time to celebrate the dwindling number of options available to us to save the earth in a form in which we’d like to dwell. One of the best ways to celebrate is to spur, goad, urge, nag and/or incite others to actually do something about energy and the environment.

Here’s an option: Join Repower America’s and Al Gore’s campaign to support Henry Waxman and his fellow Congresspeople in their new energy legislation efforts. Here’s their message:

Hi,

Right now, Congress is debating clean energy legislation that will jumpstart our economy and help solve the climate crisis. I’ve joined with Vice President Al Gore and millions of others to show my support — will you?

Please click here to sign our petition in support of this crucial clean energy legislation: Here!

That should get you off to a good start without a huge amount of effort. But wait, there’s more!

Continue reading Earth Day ToDos

Homeostasis n. The tendency of a system to maintain internal stability, owing to the coordinated response of its parts to any situation or stimulus tending to disturb its normal condition or function.

Let’s apply that description to the status and dynamics of that largest of all local systems: the earth. One of the most common topics of discussion among the chattering classes these days is global warming and climate change. Humankind, it appears increasingly certain as the scientific evidence grows, is warming up the earth’s surface by our activities. Foremost among these is our burning of carbon-based fuels. This is causing the earth to deviate from “its normal condition or function” according to this growing heap of historical/geological evidence.

Continue reading The homeostasis solution

Twenty-odd years ago the Center for Futures Research (CFR) at the University of Southern  California folded. The reason was lack of interest in the future on the part of the business community. Since the CFR was supported entirely by donations and grants rather than the university’s endowment, that was the end of the line. The almost universal mantra of senior executives in American corporations at that time—and since—was to keep one’s eyes firmly focused on the next quarter. Worry about ten or twenty years from now? Ridiculous!

How times have changed.

Continue reading The future is back

Most of us have been hearing about mankind-induced global warming for some months now. There is growing realization that something must be done about our production of CO₂ in the very near future. Or else all sorts of undesirable events will occur, with increasing frequency and intensity, globally. Despite the fantasies of the naysayers to the contrary, the scientific evidence is mounting that this is the case. There is a long trail of evidence that the natural sources of CO₂ began to be surpassed in the mid 18th century, coincident with the start of the industrial revolution. At that time the atmospheric CO₂ level was about 280ppm (parts per million). Now the concentration of CO₂ and other greenhouse gases is closer to 430ppm. The result is that the earth’s atmosphere is warmer by more than half a degree (Celsius).

Doesn’t sound like much, does it? Yet that small-appearing warming has already had serious effects, too many to repeat here.

Worse, there’s another effect that may have even larger impacts, sooner than we thought. Methane (CH₄). There are huge stores of methane in arctic regions. Methane is at least 20 times more powerful than CO₂ as a warming agent. The concentration of atmospheric methane in 1750 was about 680ppb (parts per billion). Now it’s about 1790ppb. According to Katey Walter, of the University of Alaska, in a February 22nd article in the Los Angeles Times this methane is a “time bomb” waiting for a trigger.

Here’s why.

Continue reading Lighting the fuse

As the angst mounts about the job market under current economic conditions it’s important to maintain some perspective and equilibrium. In particular, telecommuters and other teleworkers may begin to chew their nails about impending pink slips. Never mind the reassurance that “out of sight, out of mind” is folklore, what are the realities of the situation?

My answer is: It depends.

Continue reading Telejobs

Over the years I have been asked repeatedly about how telework can affect the structure of organizations or even allow new organizational forms. Given the widening turmoil in the global economy, together with the rapid expansion of information technology even in developing countries, it is worthwhile to examine some alternative organization forms. Specifically, evanescent organizations and their future, the focus of this essay. (If you  are interested in some of my earlier thoughts the topic is covered in a few pages in Chapter 11 of my book Managing Telework.)

Evanescent organizations (EOs) comprise a set of interconnected organizational resources and components that collectively operate as a coherent functional whole. The interconnections, in my definition, mostly are telecommunications links of various sorts. Think of a “normal” organization in which the key elements are scattered around the countryside, or the globe, instead of in some central location. Furthermore, the organizations are problem- or product-specific; once the problem is solved, or the desired product is produced, the organization breaks up, perhaps to merge into an earlier, more traditional form or to reassemble itself with different components in order to address a new challenge. It’s the ad hoc nature of the organization that is its central feature. By their nature, EOs tend to be small and flexible, such as “tiger teams” that are formed even in large organizations to respond to a disaster or to some passing market opportunity. But EOs can also be large and far-flung themselves, like a campaign or political action committee in the recent US presidential campaigns [the use of EOs by the Democrats was decisive in the outcome]. But one thing is certain: modern information technology provides a much broader spectrum of opportunities for EOs than was possible a mere decade ago.

So, how are EOs likely to evolve in the 21st century?

Continue reading On the future of evanescent organizations

In case you were heaving a large sigh of relief over the recent drop in fuel prices, my advice is: don’t count on it. There are clear reductions in the price at the pump, no question about it. There are three main reasons for this. First, the economy world-wide is slumping drastically. If you’re worried about your future income stream—like what happens if you lose your job—then you are likely to cut down on frivolities such as unnecessary car trips. Many people have adopted this attitude. The result? Aggregate demand for fuel drops.

Second, you may also still be reacting to the recent spike in fuel prices (surpassing $4.00 per gallon here) and have reduced car use; have traded your gas guzzler in for something more fuel thrifty like a Prius (in our neighborhood Prii almost outnumber whatever is second in popularity); have finally talked your boss into letting you telecommute at least a few days per week; or all of the above. The result? Aggregate demand for fuel drops even more.

Third, according to the November 28th Financial Times, in an article titled “Dark art of assessing oil production cuts“, the major oil producers may be cheating on their decision to reduce production iin order to keep fuel prices high. Part of the problem is that apparently nobody knows exactly how much oil the various members of OPEC are producing but the general suspicion is that its more than they are admitting to. The result? The supply of oil is not decreasing very much.

So aggregate demand for oil is diminishing but the supply of oil isn’t, at least not enough to support those high prices. OPEC’s (and the US auto industry’s) hopes are that you will once again be gulled into shedding your hybrid in favor of an Urban Assault Vehicle. Are you ready for that? Here’s why you shouldn’t be.

Continue reading No sighs of relief, please